A3.7 Continued (2)…


The illustration below provides information relating to the global temperature:

  • The black line indicates the actual temperature.
  • The blue shaded band depicts what the temperature would be expected to be should the only influences on it be natural forces (solar activity and volcanoes). [This is the results from the 5% to 95% range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models] You can clearly see that this does not match the actual temperature (the black line).
  • The pink shaded band shows what the temperature is expected to be when considering the natural and the man-made influences. [This is the results from the 5% to 95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models] You can see that when the man-made influences are considered, the expected temperature matches the actual (black line).


The temperature is changing, that is a fact. Regardless of which side of the argument you sit on, there is no denying that changes are occurring. According to UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme):

  • “Temperatures have risen by about 0.74°C on average across the globe from 1906 to 2005”.
  • “Average temperatures have increased by 0.7°C in the UK since 1659”.
  • “The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990, with 1998 as the warmest and it is likely that the last 100 years were the warmest century in the last millennium.”


Source: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change); http:www.ipcc.ch